Dutch Polls: Key Players and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Voters in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were triggered after the breakdown of the outgoing government in the summer, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies deemed him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, began sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on June 3 after his partners refused to adopt a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
While support for the PVV has declined, polls indicate the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are predicted to enter parliament, but none is expected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, typically an significant force on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 MPs in the Dutch parliament, meaning a administration requires 76 mandates to achieve majority status. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected every four years – earlier if governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a country-wide district: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Dutch politics have been characterized in modern times by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this process has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it won in 2023. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on asylum, male Ukrainian refugees to be returned, the military to combat "street terrorists", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the start of the millennium, but slumped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its platform.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to decline to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its leader, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the ill-fated outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Potential New Government
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, typically the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of political groups from centre left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties potentially including JA21.
